Romney’s Florida victory hints at November battle plan

The way Mitt Romney won Florida offers hints of the political battle plan he will have to replicate in November if he is the GOP nominee to take on President Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney greets supporters at his victory rally in Tampa on Tuesday. (AP photo)

To outscore Obama, who is likely to have more than $1 billion and the power of incumbency on his side, the former Massachusetts governor needs a mix of support similar to what he found in Florida’s GOP primary. Hispanics, women and people angry about the economy combined to give Romney a dominating victory over Newt Gingrich.

It’s a powerful political trifecta that concerns the Obama camp enough to prepare defensive moves in Florida.

The importance of Florida cannot be overstated, said Republican presidential campaign adviser Ford O’Connell.

“A Republican cannot win the nomination without winning Florida,” he said.

The way electoral votes are awarded, O’Connell said, Romney would have to win in Florida to realistically have a shot at beating Obama.

Female voters

To win Florida in November, Romney will need to continue to win over women voters. Exit polling from Tuesday showed Romney captured about 51 percent of the vote among women. Gingrich collected just 29 percent.

Female voters were a key voting bloc for Obama in his 2008 victory, when he won about 56 percent of their vote. His current ratings have dropped to about 50 percent.

The Obama administration clearly sees the weakness, having dispatched First Lady Michelle Obama for a series of events last week that included touting the administration’s support of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act.

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Hispanic voters

With no natural base of support among Cuban-Americans, the question was how would Romney do in Miami-Dade and with other Hispanic voters.

The answer was unmistakable: Romney won more than 60 percent of the vote in Miami-Dade, where Hispanic voters make up 72 percent of Republican voters.

Winning the Hispanic vote is critical for Romney. In 2008, Obama carried 67 percent of those voters. If Romney chips into that support, he leaps into contention in Florida.

Obama’s grip has been slipping since his election. His approval ratings among Hispanic voters is now down to 53 percent.

Southwest Florida

Beyond the demographics, the GOP primary proved a testing ground for Romney in some of the nation’s hardest-hit economic regions.

In places such as Lee and Collier counties, Romney pushed an economic plan aimed at Florida’s troubled housing market.

Romney won nearly 50 percent of the vote in Lee County and more than 65 percent in Collier.

Exit polling shows economic issues were a critical component for most voters who went to the polls on Tuesday. The polling showed nearly 6 of 10 voters said the economy was the top issue in the Sunshine State.

Obama has tried to elevate his profile on that front in Florida. Two weeks ago he promoted tourism policies in Orlando and has scheduled an economic summit on Friday in Tampa.