Five key factors that will decide Buchanan-Fitzgerald race

Take our poll: Can Keith Fitzgerald oust incumbent Vern Buchanan?

SARASOTA

What Keith Fitzgerald is talking about doing just does not happen in politics.

Beating a three-term congressional incumbent with deep pockets is about as rare as it gets in American politics. In 2010, 85 percent of all incumbent House members were re-elected. And in 2008 more than 98 percent won.

Still, there was the Sarasota Democrat on Thursday declaring that, not only that he was running against U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, but explaining why he thinks he will win.

“I wouldn’t do this if I didn’t think I could win,” said Fitzgerald, a political science professor at New College of Florida.

But can he?

Here are the five key factors that will decide whether Fitzgerald, 54, or Buchanan, 60, ultimately represents the region in Congress.

See The Five Factors: No. 1

Money

The cold hard reality is that it takes money to get a message out to voters and Buchanan has lots of it.

Money’s importance is even more pronounced in this region because candidates have to spend big on Tampa television stations to reach area voters.

Buchanan, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, starts with a big advantage, with more than $800,000 already in his campaign account and a proven ability to raise much more. In 2006, Buchanan, who once owned more than 20 car dealerships, spent about $8 million to win the 13th Congressional District – more than any candidate for Congress in the nation.

Of that amount, nearly $5.5 million came from his own accounts.

Fitzgerald, who has never raised more than $350,000 for a campaign, said he knows he can’t outspend Buchanan, but is convinced he can raise enough to be competitive.

He has built up a solid list of political donors willing to bet on him in the past. Influential area donors including Frank Brunckhorst and Caren Lobo know Fitzgerald well, and are connected to other potential donors who can help Fitzgerald raise money.

History shows it will take about $1.6 million — the average challengers spent to beat incumbents in 2010 — for Fitzgerald to have a shot at beating Buchanan..

Advantage: Buchanan

See The Five Factors: No. 2

Voter turnout

At first glance, the 13th District looks solidly Republican.

Just 34 percent of the registered voters in the 13th District are Democrats, compared with 45 percent for Republicans.

But a funny thing happens in presidential elections: Democrats and independents turn out in big numbers and can overcome Republican vote advantages here. It explains why in 2008 President Barack Obama and Republican John McCain were nearly dead even in Sarasota County, despite Republicans’ big voter registration edge.

Fitzgerald has to hope Obama stirs up enought passion to draw more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to the polls. Even that is no guarantee they will vote for races down the ticket.

“Democrats have a better shot at taking a district like this in a presidential year, typically,” said David Wasserman, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, a D.C.-based publication that tracks the nations 435 House races.

Advantage: Fitzgerald.

See The Five Factors: No. 3

Redistricting

The election outcome could well be set in Tallahassee, where state legislators are starting to draw Florida’s 27 congressional district boundaries.

Though Republicans dominate the legislature, political experts say they could be forced to draw a district more favorable for Democrats because of new constitutional amendments aimed as stopping gerrymandering.

Currently, the 13th District includes all of Sarasota, Hardee and DeSoto counties, plus most of Manatee County and part of Charlotte.

But legislators will be under some pressure to put all of Sarasota and Manatee in one district of about 700,000 people — nearly ideal for a congressional seat.

That would remove Hardee, DeSoto and Charlotte counties, where Buchanan won big in 2006. Replacing those voters would be heavily Democratic areas in Palmetto and Bradenton, now in a neighboring district.

“There is a good chance it gets slightly better for Democrats,” Wasserman said.

To be sure, Buchanan would still have a sizeable name recognition in Manatee County, where Fitzgerald has little political experience. But the insertion of 3,000 solid Democratic votes would improve Democratic chances.

Advantage: Too soon to tell

See The Five Factors: No. 4

Campaign finance issues

Buchanan enters with plenty of political baggage for Fitzgerald to exploit.

Over the last six months, Buchanan admitted he had been under investigation by the Federal Election Commission, was accused of pressuring former business partners to sign a false affidavits to cover up a fundraising scandal, and was recently named to a government watchdog group’s list of “most corrupt” members.

All three issues are tied to his 2006 campaign for Congress, in which he was accused by former business partners and employees at his car dealerships of pressuring people to give to his campaign and then later reimbursing them – both violations of law.

Buchanan’s campaign has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and says the FEC investigation cleared him earlier this year.

Fitzgerald said the issues are fair game. He vaguely referred to them in declaring his candidacy, saying Buchanan has been “running from one scandal to the next.”

Expect more of that.

Advantage: Fitzgerald.

See The Five Factors: No. 5

Voting records

The race will be cast as the liberal college professor ve. the Republican drone.

Since Fitzgerald and Buchanan both have been in elective offices, they have voting records to ammunition for their opponent.

Already Sarasota Republicans are going after Fitzgerald’s voting history, accusing him of being soft on immigration for his support for allowing children of illegal immigrants access to state health care programs. It’s proof he is an “Obama-liberal,” said a press release sent by the Sarasota County Republican Party within hours of Fitzgerald’s announcement.

The party is run by Joe Gruters, Buchanan’s former campaign manager.

On the flip side, while Buchanan has touted his role on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, Fitzgerald is determined to show that to land that prestigious committee post, Buchanan has voted in lock-step with the Republican leadership, rather than representing the district.

No vote better illustrates the point than one on Medicare, Fitzgerald said. Despite representing a district with one of the highest number of Medicare recipients in the nation, Buchanan voted for a House budget proposal this year that would have turned it into into a voucher-based program.

Buchanan can argue that he is the only congressman from Sarasota or Manatee counties in more than 60 years to serve on the Ways & Means Committee – which has oversight over all federal tax policies and entitlement programs.

Advantage: Buchanan